Numbers don’t lie, even when the men who manage them do.
As a professional who has spent nearly two decades navigating the complex intersection of digital transformation, credit risk, and process improvement, I have seen my fair share of “creative accounting.” But what we are witnessing with the Nigeria 2026 Budget is not just a fiscal lapse; it is a systematic failure of governance disguised as a “Budget of Consolidation.”
Let’s be brutally honest: Nigeria is no longer borrowing to build; we are borrowing to survive. The Federal Government has proposed a staggering ₦54.43 trillion expenditure plan for 2026, with a projected deficit of ₦20.10 trillion. To put that in perspective, our debt servicing alone is set to hit ₦15.91 trillion.
In the world of business process improvement, when your “cost of maintenance” (debt servicing) consumes 30-50% of your total revenue, your business model is clinically dead. Yet, the managers of Nigeria Inc. are asking for a higher debt ceiling.
The Anatomy of the Shenanigans
The sheer lack of fiscal discipline is staggering. While I have led multi-disciplinary teams across six continents to streamline operations for giants like British Petroleum and UBS, the Nigerian government seems to be doing the exact opposite: Institutionalizing inefficiency.
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The Overlapping Budget Scam: We are currently witnessing the “ghost of budgets past.” The government is running the extended 2024 budget and the 2025 budget simultaneously. This isn’t just poor planning; it’s a deliberate obfuscation of accountability.
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The 70% Rollover Directive: The Budget Ministry recently directed MDAs to carry over 70% of their 2025 capital budget into 2026. In any sane corporate environment, if a project manager fails to execute 70% of their deliverables, they are fired. In Nigeria, they are given a “rollover” and a fresh allocation.
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Revenue Hallucinations: The Finance Ministry admitted they realized only ₦10 trillion out of a projected ₦40 trillion for 2025. Yet, they have returned with a 2026 proposal based on an exchange rate of ₦1,512/$1 and oil production of 1.8 mbpd—benchmarks that feel more like fairy tales than financial strategy.
A Tale of Two African Paths: Nigeria vs. Botswana
As someone who views the continent through a lens of competitive strategy, the comparison between Nigeria and Botswana is heartbreaking. While Nigeria chases shadows, Botswana has built a fortress of stability.
| Indicator (2026 Projections) | Nigeria | Botswana |
| GDP Per Capita (PPP) | ~$9,087 | ~$20,538 |
| Inflation Rate | 14% – 26% (High Volatility) | ~2.8% |
| Debt-to-GDP Ratio | 51.6% | 50.3% |
| Govt Expenditure (% of GDP) | 18.5% (Weak spending power) | 33.4% (Direct social impact) |
The difference isn’t just in the resources; it’s in the process. Botswana manages its diamond wealth with the precision of a Swiss watch, maintaining a sovereign wealth fund that actually exists. Nigeria, meanwhile, treats its “Excess Crude Account” like a personal ATM for political actors, leaving the “giant of Africa” with a GDP per capita that is less than half of Botswana’s.
The CX (Customer Experience) Failure
In my work with Customer Experience (CX), the “customer” is the citizen. Right now, the Nigerian citizen is receiving the worst service delivery in the world.
We are being told to endure “necessary reforms” while the political class maintains a recurrent expenditure profile that would make a Roman Emperor blush. When 3 out of every 10 Naira spent goes to creditors, and the remaining 7 are swallowed by the “cost of governance,” what is left for the 200 million shareholders of this country?
We are at a “Product Development” dead-end. The “Nigeria Product” is overpriced, under-delivered, and burdened by a debt ceiling that acts more like a floor for further corruption.
The Path Forward
If I were auditing this “process,” the recommendation would be simple: Stop the bleed.
1. Enforce the Fiscal Responsibility Act: The 3% deficit-to-GDP ceiling is being ignored. It must be a hard stop, not a suggestion.
2. Digital Transparency: We need a real-time, blockchain-verified dashboard for budget implementation. No more “overlapping” budget shadows.
3. Revenue Realism: Stop basing budgets on 1.8 mbpd when theft and underinvestment keep us at 1.3 mbpd.
We cannot continue to fund a 19th-century political structure with 21st-century debt. It is time for the managers of this nation to stop the shenanigans and start the transformation.
The Debt Crisis and Nigeria’s Economic Future
This video provides a deep dive into how the ₦15.5 trillion debt servicing obligation is overshadowing the 2026 budget and what it means for the average Nigerian.
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